Are REITs as risky as stocks?
Compared to other investments such as stocks and bonds, REITs are subject to various risk factors that affect the investor's returns. Some of the main risk factors associated with REITs include leverage risk, liquidity risk, and market risk.
In general, no. Although investing in REITs does carry risk, data suggests that REITs are less risky than stocks both in the short term and in the long term. As always, past performance does not guarantee future performance, but the data we have on hand is still quite promising for would-be REIT investors.
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are considered relatively safe investments compared to other investments. However, like any investment, REITs also come with certain risks.
Any increase in the short-term interest rate eats into the profit—so if it doubled in our example above, there'd be no profit left. And if it goes up even higher, the REIT loses money. All of that makes mortgage REITs extremely volatile, and their dividends are also extremely unpredictable.
But from a REIT-wide perspective, one of the biggest problems has been rising interest rates. Rising interest rates impact REITs in a number of ways. Directly, interest expenses can go up as the interest rates on variable-coupon debt increase and as fixed-rate debt rolls over.
Summary of Why Investors May Not Want to Invest in REITs
But, REITs are not risk free. They may have highly variable returns, are sensitive to changes in interest rates, have income tax implications, may not be liquid, and fees can impact total returns.
Typically, the upfront costs of investing in a REIT are low, while their risk-adjusted returns tend to be high. Because the healthcare industry is historically defensive during times of economic crisis, investing in a healthcare REIT can offer growth potential during a recession.
This is the biggest and most important mistake that REIT investors keep on making. They see REITs as "income vehicles" and therefore, they will select their investments based on their dividend yield. In their mind, the higher the better. But in reality, the dividend is just a capital allocation decision.
In 2023, more institutional investors will likely consider REITs as part of portfolio completion strategies to gain geographic diversification or sector diversification, or to enhance their portfolios' ESG attributes. Our 2023 outlook wouldn't be complete without a deep dive into the institutional investor space.
Also, REITs are widely known for their regular dividends. With rate cuts on the line in the coming year, dividend yields for REITs are likely to be on the attractive side compared with the yields on fixed-income and money-market accounts. This will make REITs desirable to investors.
Can a REIT go to zero?
But since REITs are invested in property, there's more protection against the horror show of having shares crash to $0. By law, 75% of a REITs asset must be invested in real estate. The market value of the property owned by the REIT offers a bit of protection, as long as the value of the property doesn't go to zero.
To qualify as a REIT, a company must have the bulk of its assets and income connected to real estate investment and must distribute at least 90 percent of its taxable income to shareholders annually in the form of dividends.
Reinvesting REIT dividends can help retirement savers grow their portfolio's investment, and historically steady REIT dividend income can help retirees meet their living expenses.
Share prices for US real estate investment trust stocks jumped in the fourth quarter of 2023, outperforming the broader market. The Dow Jones Equity All REIT Index closed the quarter with a 17.9% total return, while the S&P 500 logged an 11.7% return for the quarter.
However, increases in interest rates often are driven by economic growth that may support the growth of REIT earnings and dividends in the future. Research shows that REITs returns have generally been positive and have often outperformed the S&P 500 in periods of rising interest rates.
Give us cheap REITs (real estate investment trusts) because they are likely to rise as rates fall. Yes, that's what happens in a recession. Investors flood into fixed income. Interest rates fall, and REITs—which tend to move opposite rates—rise.
Direct real estate offers more tax breaks than REIT investments, and gives investors more control over decision making. Many REITs are publicly traded on exchanges, so they're easier to buy and sell than traditional real estate.
Direct real estate investments may be more expensive upfront but give investors increased control and flexibility. Both real estate and REITs can help investors hedge inflation and market downturn risks. Both can also be a source of regular cash flow, though REITs are a much more passive investment than real estate.
As interest rates rise, they can depress the price of these REITs. So while dividends may climb with interest rates, the price of publicly-traded REITs may decline. Historically, REITs are one of the better-performing sectors during inflationary periods.
Data source: Nareit and YCharts (2022). As you can see, REITs have outperformed the S&P 500 over the past 20-, 25-, and 50-year periods. REITs also outperformed stocks in the most recent full year of available data (2021).
Do REITs outperform real estate?
Moriarity explained that when the Fed stopped raising rates over the last four cycles, REITs have tended to outperform following that rate hike cycle ending. “Not only do they perform really well, they actually outperform equities broadly and also private real estate,” Moriarity said.
While a REIT is still open to public investors, investors may be able to sell their shares back to the REIT. However, this sale usually comes at a discount; leaving only about 70% to 95% of the original value. Once a REIT is closed to the public, REIT companies may not offer early redemptions.
According to the data, REITs have outperformed stocks over the long term, delivering an 11.9% average annual return from 1972 to 2021 (compared to 10.7% for the S&P 500). At that rate of return, a monthly investment of $300 in REITs would grow into $1 million in about 30 years.
Symbol | Company | REIT performance (1-year total return) |
---|---|---|
AOMR | Angel Oak Mortgage Inc. | 60.92% |
SKT | Tanger Outlets | 55.01% |
MDV | Modiv Industrial Inc. | 44.80% |
SEVN | Seven Hills Realty Trust | 41.52% |
If you invested in the REIT outside of your Roth IRA, the dividends would be taxed as income. In many ways, investing in REITs in your Roth IRA is the ideal way to invest in a REIT. Their dividends greatly compound over time and you won't have to pay taxes on them when you reach retirement age.
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