Will Iran’s foreign policy change under a new president? (2024)

The two remaining candidates vying for the Iranian presidency, Saeed Jalili and Masoud Pezeshkian, offer voters distinct visions for the country’s future.

However, experts say their differing views are unlikely to lead to a significant change in Iran’s foreign policy.

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Pezeskhian, a former health minister and surgeon, came first in Friday’s election but did not secure the 50 percent needed for an outright victory, forcing him into a run-off against second-placed Jalili to be held on July 5.

Friday’s snap election was to pick a successor to President Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash in late May.

Pezeshkian stands out in the race as the only non-conservative candidate allowed to run.

He had the backing of reformists like former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, whose involvement likely indicates Pezeshkian will pursue a key reformist foreign policy goal: renegotiating a nuclear deal to alleviate sanctions on Iran’s economy and ease tensions with the West.

The 2015 agreement between Iran and China, the European Union, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, United States, to curb its nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief, was signed under the centrist presidency of Hassan Rouhani.

But three years later, then-US President Donald Trump withdrew from the deal, crushing the hopes of those who believed it would have paved the way for Iran’s economic renaissance.

Instead, the US imposed harsh new sanctions, and Iranian hardliners found new ground to say the West could not be trusted. Talks over the deal’s revival have since largely stalled.

On the other side of the political spectrum, Jalili is considered the most rigid representative of conservative politics.

A victory for this staunch hardliner – with the backing of other conservative first-round candidates – would mark an even more confrontational approach towards the West, especially the US, analysts say.

Having served as the chief nuclear negotiator between 2007-2012, Jalili opposed the idea that Iran should discuss or compromise with other countries about its uranium enrichment programme – a stance he kept for the 2015 deal.

Not the only decision-maker

Regardless of the candidates’ markedly different stances, Iran’s president operates within a limited mandate.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) under him hold most of the say when it comes to foreign policy.

Will Iran’s foreign policy change under a new president? (1)

“If you get 180-degree change between a Trump or a [current US President Joe] Biden administration on the general trajectory of the US, in Iran, with a change of presidency, you get a 45 percent difference – it’s not insignificant but not as impactful as in other countries,” said Ali Vaez, chief of International Crisis Group’s Iran programme.

“There are elements of continuity that limit how much change one can see.”

This has been floated as one of the reasons behind the 40 per cent turnout in Friday’s election – the lowest in Iran’s history since the 1979 Islamic Revolution – as voters appear to have lost hope that much can improve with a change of president.

A reformist president would have to face the ultra-conservative forces dominating Iran’s parliament, while his ability to engage with the West would be tested by the country’s regional engagement, which has pitted it against allies of the West.

In April, Iran launched a missile and drone attack against Israel in retaliation for an Israeli assault on the Iranian consular building in Damascus, Syria, which killed senior IRGC commanders.

The unprecedented tit-for-tat came amid heightened regional tensions as Israel’s war on Gaza drags on and the potential of an all-out war between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon looms larger.

But while regional policies have long been strictly handled by the IRGC, nuclear negotiations with world powers are still on the table.

On this matter, the president can set the tone and attitude, even if it is only for marginal changes, said Vali Nasr, a professor of Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins University.

“When it comes to the nuclear deal, the president can be very important in exploring possibilities for different kinds of outcomes,” Nasr said. “Pezeshkian would make a case to start talks with the US while Jalili would not.”

Nuclear diplomacy is central to Iranians as it directly affects the country’s economy – the top concern of most Iranians. Successive governments have failed to tackle currency depreciation and inflation, which they have blamed on the Western sanctions regime.

“For sanctions to be lifted, one needs to be interested in talking with the West – whether you have… an intransigent president, it does make a difference,” Nasr said.

Will Iran’s foreign policy change under a new president? (2)

The hardline approach

A Jalili presidency would be in line with the late Raisi’s approach, who promised in his three-year tenure not to link the economy to nuclear talks with foreign powers.

Instead, the government decided to rely on Iran’s internal capabilities, while pivoting its business towards the East, strengthening ties with China, Russia and neighbouring countries.

Under the so-called “resistance economy”, Iran last year signed a China-brokered deal with Saudi Arabia ending a years-long cold war between the regional rivals.

Raisi also pushed for Iran to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the country became a member of the BRICS bloc earlier this year.

But the so-called turn to the East did not produce tangible results in terms of improving the economy – something the conservative camp has acknowledged – leaving any future president in need of striking a balance when it comes to direction.

“Jalili won’t be able to completely avoid talks with the West, as Pezeshkian won’t focus just on nuclear talks,” said Hamid Reza Gholamzadeh, the director of DiploHouse, a think tank focused on foreign policy.

He added that Iran’s foreign policy will also depend on external factors – most importantly, the US election in November.

“The challenge is not from inside Iran but from outside – on whether Trump or Biden wins,” he said. “Even if Pezeskhian is the president, he will face foreign challenges, rather than domestic.”

Will Iran’s foreign policy change under a new president? (2024)

FAQs

What is the US foreign policy with Iran? ›

Iran and the United States have had no formal diplomatic relations since 7 April 1980. Instead, Pakistan serves as Iran's protecting power in the United States, while Switzerland serves as the United States' protecting power in Iran.

What are the objectives of Iran's foreign policy? ›

Iran's Foreign Policy and Support for Terrorist Groups.

Iran's government seeks, among other goals, to erode U.S. influence in the Middle East while projecting power in neighboring states by backing a range of regional armed groups, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and other U.S.-designated terrorist organizations.

Who can remove the president in Iran? ›

Office. The president is required to gain the Supreme Leader's official approval before being sworn in by the Parliament, and the Supreme Leader has the power to dismiss the elected president if he has either been impeached by Parliament or found guilty of a constitutional violation by the Supreme Court.

Who is the iranian new president? ›

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iran swore in the country's new president on Tuesday, with the reformist politician and heart surgeon Masoud Pezeshkian pledging that his administration will keep trying to remove economic sanctions imposed by the West over Tehran's controversial nuclear program.

Which countries have good relations with Iran? ›

China and India have also emerged as friends of Iran; these three countries face similar challenges in the global economy as they industrialize, and consequently find themselves aligned on a number of issues. Iran maintains regular diplomatic and commercial relations with Russia and the former Soviet Republics.

Is it safe to go to Iran right now? ›

Iran - Level 4: Do Not Travel. Updated to add the Terrorism Risk Indicator and risk of surrogacy tourism. Do not travel to Iran due to the risk of terrorism, civil unrest, kidnapping and the arbitrary arrest of U.S. citizens. Exercise increased caution due to wrongful detentions.

Who is Iran's biggest ally? ›

Syria. Syria and Iran are strategic allies. Syria is often called Iran's "closest ally", the Arab nationalism ideology of Syria's ruling Baath party notwithstanding.

What are the two most powerful policy making institutions in Iran? ›

Two very powerful, unelected posts/institutions unique to the Islamic Republic are the Supreme Leader and Guardian Council.

What is Iran's position in the world? ›

It is the sixth-largest country entirely in Asia and one of the world's most mountainous countries. Officially an Islamic republic, Iran has a Muslim-majority population. The country is divided into five regions with 31 provinces. Tehran is the nation's capital, largest city and financial center.

Who is the real leader of Iran? ›

In its history, the Islamic Republic of Iran has had only two Supreme Leaders: Khomeini, who held the position from 1979 until his death in 1989 and Ali Khamenei, who has held the position for more than 30 years since Khomeini's death.

Which president was involved in the Iran scandal? ›

The Iran–Contra affair (Persian: ماجرای ایران-کنترا; Spanish: Caso Irán-Contra), often referred to as the Iran–Contra scandal and more rarely as the Iran Initiative, was a political scandal in the United States that occurred during the second term of the Reagan administration.

Who controls Iran's government? ›

Head of state and government

The Supreme Leader (Velayat-e Faqih also written Wali Faqih), Ali Hoseini-Khamenei (since 4 June 1989) is head of state, Iran's religious leader and military leader.

Who was Iran's last president? ›

The most recent president, Ebrahim Raisi, died in a helicopter crash on 19 May 2024, leaving the office vacant. Mohammad Mokhber is serving as acting president until Masoud Pezeshkian, who won the 2024 Iranian presidential election, takes over.

Who is the 8th president of Iran? ›

Ebrahim Raisi
Hujjat al-Islam Sayyid Ebrahim Raisi
Succeeded byMohammad Niazi
Personal details
BornSayyed Ebrahim Raisolsadati14 December 1960 Mashhad, Imperial State of Iran
Died19 May 2024 (aged 63) near Uzi, East Azerbaijan, Iran
53 more rows

Who is the grand president of Iran? ›

Ali Khamenei
The Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khamenei
Tehran's Friday Prayer Imam
Incumbent
Assumed office 14 January 1980
Appointed byRuhollah Khomeini
62 more rows

What is the US treaty with Iran? ›

According to details of the deal published by the US government, Iran's uranium stockpile will be reduced by 98% to 300 kg (660 lbs) for 15 years. The level of enrichment must also remain at 3.67%. Iran will retain no more than 6,104 out of almost 20,000 centrifuges it possesses.

What kind of foreign policy does the US have? ›

Promoting freedom and democracy and protecting human rights around the world are central to U.S. foreign policy. The values captured in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and in other global and regional commitments are consistent with the values upon which the United States was founded centuries ago.

What is the US foreign policy on Iraq? ›

The United States maintains vigorous and broad engagement with Iraq on diplomatic, political, economic, and security issues in accordance with the U.S.-Iraq Strategic Framework Agreement (SFA). The SFA between Iraq and the United States provides the foundation for the U.S.-Iraq bilateral relationship.

Does the US support Iran or Iraq? ›

The United States provides the Iraqi security forces hundreds of millions of dollars of military aid and training annually as well as uses its military bases.

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